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Grocery is the most habitual category in retail, same stores, same brands, same routines, year after year. Yet the ground underneath that habit is shifting faster than the industry is built to handle.

U.S. grocery sales grew just 1.2% in 2025, entirely from higher prices, not more items sold. Volume actually fell, and the slide has since gotten worse.

Retail media, ecommerce, private label, fresh, loyalty, and AI used to be six separate agendas. RETHINK Retail’s new report, in partnership with Vusion, Capgemini, OrderGrid, Veloq, and Braze, argues they’re becoming one system, the thing that actually earns the trip, builds trust, and turns into profitable growth.

Access the report to see exactly where the gap between data and action is costing grocers the most, and what the retailers pulling ahead are doing differently.

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Key Takeaways

• The Availability Paradox
  A 99% reported delivery rate doesn’t mean a 99% stocked shelf. Most inventory systems can’t tell the difference between what’s “in stock” and what’s actually “on shelf,” a gap costing the industry $1.7 trillion a year.
• The Loyalty Reset
  Most grocers have built loyalty infrastructure. Few have built actual loyalty. The retailers pulling ahead treat membership as the start of a data strategy, not the end of a marketing campaign.
• The Personalization Gap
  92% of retail marketers believe AI is helping them understand consumers. Only 53% of consumers agree. Closing that 39-point gap requires a reciprocal data exchange, not just more sophisticated targeting.
• The Last-Mile Reckoning
  Online grocery demand could outpace fulfillment capacity by $20–30 billion by 2030. Winning the last mile means owning the customer signal, not just the delivery.